Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Should we trust the National polls?

The national polls are all over the map, as we all probably know by now. An associated press-GfK poll has Obama at..... 44 to McCain's..... 43 Giving Obama only a one point lead. A pew poll has it at Obama ...53 to McCain's .....39 a 14 point advantage for Obama, so this is a very wide range that we should be suspicious of. and keep in mind, So far in this election the national polls have been wrong.

In the democratic primary three weeks before Clinton conceded, some Polls had Obama up by 26 points. The last realclearpolitics average for the primary had Obama up by 12.2 points. but there was one big problem for Obama, he won the popular vote by less than 1 percentage point. In this case the national polls were way off, and they overestimated Obamas victory against Clinton.

The moral of the story is that the national polls have done a terrible job so far in this election, so why should we believe them now! Polls should be used as a reference, but not as an absolute reality for any election.......especially this one .


Gayle said...

Good! Someone else saying the same thing I've been saying for months! The national polls tell us nothing. They really never have. All they do is get people worked up.

Bloviating Zeppelin said...

It's not over until the morning of November 5th.


Pasadena Closet Conservative said...

We're always told that the national polls are "scientific" and are a "representative sample" of American voters. If that's the case, then why are the polls from various organizations so completely different from each other? I'm just asking.

Khaki Elephant said...

Let's just hope that faux bloated polls don't create a sense of hopelessness among the faithful . . . perhaps that's the intent.